Areas affected

• Central and eastern Wales
• Midlands
• SW England
• Cent S England
• A small portion of N England
• Channel Islands

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Hazards

• Wind gusts of 50-70mph
• Occasional CG lightning
• Hail 20-25mm diameter
• Isolated tornadoes

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Discussion

An area of low pressure will move NNE to the west of the area today. To the east of this, a slightly unstable airmass will be present. Several bands of showery rain are expected to move NNE across the discussion area, and lightning is already present within this to the south of SW England. Strong deep-layer shear coupled with upper forcing will likely cause the precipitation to align into lines. Strong low-level shear will be present too.

Heavier cores within the lines will be able to mix-down stronger flow from just above the boundary layer, bringing the risk of gusts of 50-60mph, perhaps locally 70mph in the most extreme cases. Hail is possible in the stronger cores too, as well as a few CG lightning strikes. **UPDATE - some hail may reach 20-25mm diameter - recently, hail was noted in Oxfordshire of this size.

Finally, whilst the overall tornado threat is low, given the linear nature of much of the activity, there is a low-end chance of one or two developing, especially within a core of stronger 850 hPa flow, from parts of SW England into Cent S England and the southern Midlands.

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Last updated by RPK at 16:05 GMT Thursday 28th March 2024