Areas affected

• Parts of SW England
• Cent S England
• SE England
• Parts of the Midlands
• E England
• E Anglia
• Channel Is

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Hazards

• Tornadoes
• Wind gusts to 60mph
• Occasional CG lightning
• Hail to 15-20mm diameter

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Discussion

A frontal system will move NE across the area this afternoon and into this evening/overnight. A couple of upper shortwaves will accompany this. The exact morphology of areas of convection remains somewhat uncertain - however, an area of showery rain, with some lightning noted (especially near the triple point) is noted in the western English Channel - this area of precip will continue to move NE this afternoon/into tonight.

With strong low-level shear, tornadoes cannot be ruled out with some of the stronger cells, with the area around and a little east of the triple point perhaps being more favoured. This corridor looks to be from around about Dorset/Hampshire NE towards the Wash. However, some discrete cells may occur east of this too. With favourable deep-layer shear, supercells cannot be ruled out - any supercell may also bring hail 15-20mm diameter, and squally gusts, as well as a tornado threat.

Another area of showery rain/embedded thunderstorms may spread NE this evening into tonight, likely associated with a second upper trough. Surface flow should have veered somewhat, suggesting gusty outflow winds may be the bigger threat - however, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out with this, especially in southern counties from Hampshire eastwards.

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Last updated by RPK at 12:36 BST Saturday 28th October 2023