Areas affected

• Parts of S and mid Wales
• Southern England
• Parts of the Midlands
• E England
• E Anglia
• Channel Is

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Hazards

• Isolated tornadoes
• Wind gusts to 60mph
• CG lightning
• Hail to 20-25mm diameter

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Discussion

**Extended to 2100 to cater for activity along the south coast - the risk is rather lower elsewhere now**

A cold front will clear eastern areas this morning, followed by an unstable SW'erly flow. A surface trough will approach from the west this afternoon. A substantial shortwave trough aloft will move in, with plenty of shear vorticity/lift associated with it.

Showers and thunderstorms are moving into SW England now, with one or two incidences of cell-splitting noted on radar, suggestion supercell structures are possible. Through the remainder of today, these showers and thunderstorms, with lines/clusters possible, along with the chance of supercell structures, will move NE across the watch area. The northern extent of the watch has be determined by the northern extent of stronger low-level shear.

Lines and clusters should bring strong wind gusts, perhaps to 60mph. Additionally, low-level shear, locally with 0-1km SREH of around 200 J/Kg could support low-level mesocyclones which may spawn a few tornadoes, especially across the southern half of the depicted area. Any supercell structures could enhance the risk of a stronger tornado although, of course, the overall risk to any one location is small. Indeed, it is worth noting that most of the watch area will not see severe weather, but some incidences are possible.

This watch replaces the Convective Discussion.

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Last updated by RPK at 19:29 GMT Tuesday 1st November 2022