Severe Weather Forecast
FORECAST// FORECAST ID #43
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Tornado Watch +
10:43 BST Mon 05 Sep 2022 – 23:59 BST Mon 05 Sep 2022

Areas affected

  • RoI
  • Southern N Ireland

Hazards

  • Isolated tornadoes

Discussion

Rather intense, vertically-stack low is to the SW of the Republic of Ireland this morning. A well-marked shortwave trough is rotating around the eastern flank, marked by a line of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms. Radar presentation suggests some organised/persistent cells within and just ahead of this line, perhaps supercells. Shear, especially low-level shear, is rather impressive, suggesting the potential for both deep and low-level rotation within more discrete cells.

One or two tornadoes are possible across the Watch area through today and this evening, especially across central and southern parts of the RoI - the persistence of active thunderstorms with northward-extent is somewhat uncertain, hence the rather large area. Strong wind gusts and reasonably-large hail are possible with the more active cells, with CG lightning/heavy rain additional hazards.

Meanwhile, conditions across parts of SW England/Wales, into the Midlands/Cent S England are being monitored for a possible advisory or watch a bit later today.

Last updated by RPK at 10:57 BST Monday 5th September 2022

Severe thunderstorms

TORRO defines a severe thunderstorm as producing one or more of the following:
  • one or more tornadoes and / or waterspouts
  • hail with diameter of at least 20mm
  • non-tornadic winds gusting to 55 mph or more at surface (but which are not part of synoptic-scale straight-line winds of such velocities)
Thunder/lightning does not necessarily need to be present for any of the conditions listed above to occur.

See also...

Tornadoes
How do tornadoes form, how are they classified and where do they occur in the world?
Hail
UK hail extremes and the TORRO Hail (H) scale...
Report severe weather
Submit a severe weather report to TORRO...

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