Severe Weather Forecast
Severe Weather Forecast
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TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2009/022
A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 08:35GMT on Friday 3rd July 2009
Valid from/until: 08:35-21:00GMT on Friday 3rd July 2009 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:
Scotland
N England
Midlands & E Anglia
Eire
N Ireland
THREATS
Isolated funnels/tornadoes, marginally severe hail, CG lightning, torrential rainfall, gusty winds.
SYNOPSIS
High theta-e/w plume is slowly progressing NE across Great Britain. This will bring the chance of both embedded mid-level thunderstorm activity, and the chance of surface-based storm development through the remainder of today, from E Anglia NW'wards through much of N England into Scotland. Shear is marginally sufficent in these areas for loosely organised clusters, posing a slight wind/hail threat, along with heavy rain/CG lightning.
Across N Ireland, surface front is moving NE with some convective activity - a stronger storm is possible along this line before it moves into W Scotland.
Across Eire, vort max is moving into the SW ATTM and will move NNE through today. Surface based instability is expected to develop around and just ahead of it. Shear profiles are supportive of weak rotation, which could enhance a wind/hail threat. In addition, low-level shear profiles suggest a slight risk of a tornado.
Forecaster: RPK.
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