Severe Weather Forecast
TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2013/003
A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 1010GMT on Saturday 16th March 2013
Valid from/until: 1010GMT-1900GMT on Saturday 16th March 2013
for the following regions
Parts of (see map)
Hail to 1.5cms diameter; isolated tornadoes; gusty winds to 50mph; CG lightning.
Complex upper low covers the British Isles with various short-waves rotating around it. A fairly pronounced one will move into SW'ern Britain through today. Some instability is progged to develop with this (100-300 J/Kg). Vertical shear, with veering low-level profiles, is expected to be sufficient for some storm organisation, and perhaps brief rotation.
There is a marginal risk of severe weather in the form of reasonably large hail and isolated tornadoes. The latter seem most likely where surface flow is backed the most ahead of the system, which appears to be from the Bristol Channel east and north-east into parts of Cent S England and the S Midlands this afternoon.