Severe Weather Forecast
Severe Weather Forecast
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TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2011/023
A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 09:30GMT on Tuesday 13th December 2011
Valid from/until: 09:30GMT - 09:30GMT on Tuesday 13th/Wednesday 14th December 2011 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:
S England
S Wales
S Midlands
E Anglia
Channel Is
THREATS
Isolated tornadoes (mainly coastal regions); hail; gusty winds to 55-60mph; CG lightning
SYNOPSIS
Unstable polar maritime airmass will affect the area throughout today and tonight (and into tomorrow too). Wind shear will be sufficient for organised convection, including brief mesocyclones. Through daylight hours today the instability will spread inland but overnight tonight it will be mainly limited to coastal parts. However, a trough moving through overnight may bring convection further inland, especially across southern parts.
Gusty winds are the main threat, but isolated tornadoes are possible, especially in coastal regions. Overnight, as a trough moves through, backed flow ahead of this may enhance the tornado risk, especially along the south coast. Occasional CG lightning and hail may accompany the stronger cores.
The risk may continue through tomorrow too but that will be dealt with by another forecast tomorrow morning, if appropriate.
Forecaster: RPK
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