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TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2014/005

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 11:45GMT on Saturday 19th July 2013

Valid from/until: 11:45GMT - 23:00GMT on Saturday 19th July 2014

for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

Much of central and eastern England

SE Scotland

THREATS

Isolated incidences of severe wind and hail; CG lightning

Moisture plume covers much of the area with several vorticity maxima rotating northwards across the British Isles. Areas of rain with embedded thunderstorms have typified this plume overnight and thus far today, and further thunderstorms will occur this afternoon. Three more obvious risk areas seem to be apparent: 1) On the western side of the plume/EML, from Dorset northwards into the West Midlands; 2) A cluster of storms over N Central France which should drift into parts of SE England this afternoon; and, 3) an area of thunderstorms over the Lincs region, perhaps associated with a sea breeze convergence zone. Elsewhere, any cloud breaks should allow a few more showers or thunderstorms to develop. Other storms will affect portions of Eire, N Ireland and Scotland.

The discussion area has been highlighted as wind shear is somewhat stronger across this area and thus some storms may become more organised, most probably in the form of small lines, capable of locally severe wind/hail. MCS development cannot be ruled out from the acvitity coming out of France at the moment, which could bring a more widespread wind threat. In addition, high boundary layer moisture and low LCLs with any surface based storms mean a tornado cannot be ruled out.

At this stage, confidence is too low on organised severe weather to issue a watch, but conditions will be monitored. If activity looks like becoming more organised, an upgrade to a watch may be required.

Forecaster: RPK.

UK MAP
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