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TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2015/004

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 0740GMT on Sunday 29th March 2015

Valid from/until: 07:40 17:00GMT on Sunday 29th March 2015 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

N and mid Wales

Midlands

E Anglia and Lincs

Parts of SE England

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

A diffluent upper trough at the eastern end of a powerful Atlantic jetstream will continue to sharpen a frontal wave across the southern half of the British Isles. Models suggest modest CAPE developing within the warm sector and high resolution models suggest the development of a line or lines of precipitation along the cold front. Strong low-level wind shear suggests that small waves may develop along this line /misocyclones/ which may locally enhance the strong wind threat, and provide a small risk for isolated tornadoes. Instability may be enough for a few CG lightning discharges too.

Forecaster: RPK.

UK MAP
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