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TORNADO WATCH 2014/012

A TORRO TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 0730GMT on Saturday 18th October 2014

Valid from/until: 07:30 - 09:00GMT on Saturday 18th/Sunday 19th October 2014 for the following regions

Parts of (see map)

Eire

N Ireland

Western Scotland

IoM

Far NW Wales

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; hail

DISCUSSION

A moist and unstable SSW'erly flow is present across the area. Showers and thunderstorms will occur at times through today and overnight, especially near the west coast(s). Strong deep layer shear /40-60 knots 0-6 km/ suggests that organised multicells, short lines, and supercells are all possible modes of convection. In addition, backed surface flow will increase 0-1km shear and helicity - a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Through Saturday there will be no clear focus for larger scale lift, but through the evening and overnight an upper trough will approach suggests showers/thunderstorms may become more numerous. The risk may be offset somewhat overnight inland because of nocturnal cooling of the boundary layer, which suggests the highest risk through the night will be in coastal areas.

Forecaster: RPK

UK MAP
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