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TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2015/008

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 1950GMT on Thursday 16th July 2015

Valid from/until: 19:50 04:00GMT on Thursday 16th/Friday 17th July 2015 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Portions of the Midlands

Much of Central Southern and South East England

E Anglia

THREATS

Hail to 15-20mm diameter; Gusts to 50mph; CG lightning

SYNOPSIS

High theta-w plume topped by modest EML (steepest lapse rates over SE England) is destabilising on its western side as an upper shortwave trough moves in from the SW. Thunderstorms have developed near the Isle of Wight and will continue to move/expand NNE through this evening. Other convection has formed across portions of the Midlands and may also become thundery as it continues to move NNE. With lapse rates contributing to elevated CAPE of around 800-1000 J/Kg amongst modest wind shear, storms may organise into a small MCS, especially across SE England/E Anglia. Merging cold pools may promote locally strong wind gusts, whilst the steep lapse rates bring the risk of marginally severe hail. At this stage, storm-scale rotation deemed unlikely and thus larger hail also seems unlikely. With this in mind, a discussion has been issued as opposed to a severe thunderstorm watch.

Forecaster: RPK.

UK MAP
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