Severe Weather Forecast
TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2015/017
A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 2340GMT on Thursday 26th November 2015
Valid from/until: 05:00 – 20:00GMT on Friday 27th November 2015 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:
England, Wales, Scotland, N Ireland, Ireland
Isolated tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph
A deep Atlantic low will push a marked cold front ESE across the British Isles on Friday. A surge of cold air should allow the front to exhibit a density current with slab convection along the leading edge, leading to a marked line squall. Strong veer across the frontal zone combined with locally enhanced low-level forced convection may allow for the risk of isolated tornadoes. Along the front may exhibit line convection across much of the British Isles (and hence a large area of risk) there may be an enhanced zone (inside pink lines) across the central third. Models suggest the front may surge more in this area, south of a minor wave, which may enhance low-level convergence/stretching.
Given that very little instability is suggested ahead of the front would appear to limit the overall risk - however, there is a chance there could be a more widespread risk, depending on the morphology.
Given the uncertainties in this regard, a convective discussion has been issued as opposed to a tornado watch.
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