Severe Weather Forecast
TORRO TORNADO WATCH 2016/002
A TORNADO WATCH has been issued at 1020GMT on Saturday 27th August 2016
Valid from/until: 1020 - 2200GMT on Saturday 27th August 2016, for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:
Parts of (see map)
Portions of southern, central and eastern England, and East Anglia
Tornadoes; hail to 40mm diameter; wind gusts to 60mph; CG lightning; heavy rain
A warm front is moving north across the region this morning, with rain and a few thunderstorms accompanying it. This is introducing a plume of warm/moist air. An upper low to the south-west will approach through the day - lifting from this already seems to be allowing convection /likely elevated/ to develop in the Channel, with thunderstorms too. This activity should move NNE into the watch area, and other thunderstorms may develop close to this, or elsewhere in the watch area this afternoon, as surface heating continues. The south-eastern extent of the activity is somewhat uncertain and could extend beyond the watch box - the box simply highlights the highest risk area.
There is a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms, as and combination of instability and deep layer wind shear looks supportive of severe weather, should storms develop in the boundary layer - one potential limiting factor is mid-level cloudiness, but enough NWP guidance develops heavy thunderstorms to warrant this watch. Well organised multicells and perhaps isolated supercells support the risk of severe wind and hail, as well as CG lightning. Additionally, low-level wind shear, especially close to the frontal zone, may support low-level rotation, bringing the risk of isolated tornadoes.
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